印度两个世界之最英文(Idia’sexgeeevoluio印度下次

文 / 柳下婴（微信公众号王不留）

选自TE20221021，Leaders

Reneable energy

可再生能源

India’s next green revolution

印度的下一次绿色革命

The country’s clean-energy push shos a ay to escape the coal addiction.

推进清洁能源开发，探索出一条摆脱煤炭依赖之路。

If you care about the climate, a crucial question is ho emerging economies, hich accounted for 67% of carbon-dioxide emissions from energy last year, can shift to a cleaner approach. They derive a third of their primary energy from coal, and must meet the aspirations of poor citizens ho lack cheap electricity.

如果你关心气候问题，那么一个关键的问题就是新兴经济体如何能够转向更清洁的能源。去年，这些经济体的二氧化碳排放占能源排放总量的67%。他们三分之一的主要能源来自煤炭，还必须要满足缺乏廉价电力的穷人的愿望。

An alternative model is no visible in the other Asian giant, India, hich is in the early stages of a green boom led by the private sector. Although it has obvious flas, it provides hope that India can make the green leap.

另一个亚洲巨人——印度，现在也出现了另一种模式。印度正处于由私营部门主导的绿色发展早期阶段。尽管它有明显的缺陷，但它为印度实现绿色飞跃带来了趣怪网希望。

India has immense energy needs. It is forecast to be one of the fastest-groing big economies this decade and ill need to add capacity equivalent to the size of the European Union’s Poer system by 2040. After a flirtation ith hydro in the 1950s and 1960s it came to rely heavily on coal, hich met 58% of its primary-energy needs in 2021. Like many governments, India’s has mitted to reaching net-zero emissions (by 2070).

印度有巨大的能源需求。据预测，它将是这十年增长最快的大型经济体之一。到2040年，它需要增加相当于欧盟电力系统规模的容量。在20世纪50年代和60年代，印度开始严重依赖煤炭。截止2021年，煤炭满足了58%的一次能源需求。和许多政府一样，印度政府也承诺实现净零排放（到2070年）。

The big surprise is that major changes are happening on the ground. In the past decade, India has seen a 50-fold increase in installed solar poer. In 2021 its reneables accounted for 5% of its primary-energy consumption, and 5% of global reneable primary-energy consumption. Private firms have plans to invest perhaps $200bn in the ing years in everything from generation facilities to green hydrogen plants (by parison, global investment in ind and solar last year as about $300bn, and India’s as roughly $15bn). The government ants to triple non-fossil-fuel capacity by 2030.

大大出乎人们意料的是，当地正在发生重大变化。过去十年，印度的太阳能发电装机增长了50倍。2021年，印度的可再生能源占一次能源消费的5%，占全球可再生一次能源消费的5%。私营企业计划在未来几年投资2000亿美元，投资领域从发电设备到绿色氢电站（相比之下，去年全球风能和太阳能投资约为3000亿美金，印度约为150亿美金）。政府趣怪网希望到2030年将非化石燃料产能提高三倍。

Behind the boom are a number of forces. One is the country’s underlying attributes: sun-drenched India has some of the cheapest solar poer in the orld, and the life-cycle cost of ne plants is loer than for coal ones. The government has helped by introducing guarantee mechanis so that firms forced to deal ith rickety poer distributors can still secure funding. The prime minister, Narendra Modi, vies clean energy as a catalyst for an industrial boom based on cheap poer, batteries and electric vehicles. Clean poer ill help cut a large import bill for fossil fuels and, by loering pollution, save millions of lives.

蓬勃发展的背后是多股力量。其一是这个国家的潜在特征阳光充足的印度拥有世界上最便宜的太阳能发电，新电厂的生命周期成本低于燃煤电厂。政府通过引入担保机制来提供帮助，使被迫与风雨飘摇的电力分销商打交道的公司仍能获得资金。印度总理莫迪（Narendra Modi）认为，清洁能源是以廉价电力、电池和电动汽车为基础的工业繁荣的催化剂。清洁能源将有助于减少化石燃料的大量进口，并通过减少污染，挽救数百万人的生命。

The final force is that India’s big local conglomerates (including Reliance Industries, Adani Group and Tata Group) are deploying capital at scale. Whereas previously they ould have been ary of such investments, no they think they have the certainty, financial clout and expertise to plough ahead. One gauge of the boom is that some investors and firms are getting more nervous about long-run coal projects, as cheap reneable poer starts to undercut coal-fired poer on price. Beteen 2010 and 2022, proposals for over 600 GW of coal-fired poer in India (about three times its installed base of coal plants) have either been put on hold or scrapped, ith another 15 GW-orth of coal generation retired from service.

一股力量是印度本土的大型企业集团（包括信实工业、阿达尼集团和塔塔集团）正在大规模地部署资本。以前，他们会对此类投资持谨慎态度；而现在，他们认为自己有确定性、金融影响力和专业知识，可以破浪前行。随着廉价的可再生能源开始在价格上削弱燃煤发电，一些投资者和公司对长期运行的煤炭项目越来越紧张。2010年至2022年间，印度超过600千兆瓦的燃煤发电（约为其煤电装机容量的三倍）的计划要么被搁置，要么被废弃，另有价值15千兆瓦的煤炭发电退出服务。

Yet for all its successes India’s surge faces several hurdles. One is financing. Experts reckon it ill take over $500bn of investment by 2030 in clean energy, tranission lines, grid-scale batteries and related kit to achieve the government’s 500 GW. That is at least tice the present investment plans of the big firms, so India ill have to attract ne sources of capital at a time hen interest rates are rising. The financial strain of huge capital projects could yet eaken the appetite of the big conglomerates: Adani Group, for example, is significantly indebted.

，尽管印度取得了诸多成功，但它仍面临几个障碍。一是融资。据专家估计，到2030年，清洁能源、输电线路、电网规模的电池和相关配套设施将需要超过5000亿美元的投资，才能实现政府制定的500千兆瓦目标。这至少是大公司目前投资计划的两倍，印度将不得不在利率上升的时候吸引新的资金来源。大型资本项目的财政压力可能会削弱大型企业集团的胃口例如，阿达尼集团已负债累累。

Poer struggle

较力

The biggest hurdle of all relates to government policy, hich needs to be predictable enough to provide certainty to investors. It also needs to anticipate challenges—redesigning electricity grids, for example, as the share of intermittent poer rises. India’s officials have a good sense of hat to do. But they face resistance from a coal lobby hich controls vast budgets and employs millions. A state-run firm, NTPC, has just gone ahead ith its first ne coal plant for about six years; a government advisory body has called for more coal capacity. India’s green boom is a test of the private sector’s ability to marshal resources—and also of the government’s ability to overe vested interests.

最大的障碍与政府政策有关。政府政策需要具有足够的可预测性，以便为投资者提供确定性。它还需要能预见挑战——例如，随着间歇性电力份额的上升，电网需要进行重新设计。印度员很清楚该怎么做。但他们面临着来自煤炭游说团体的阻力，后者控制着巨额预算，雇佣了数百万员工。一家国营公司，印度国家电力集团（NTPC），刚刚开始着手建设其六年来的第一座新煤电厂；一个政府咨询机构已经呼吁增加煤炭产能。印度的绿色发展是对私营部门资源配置能力的考验，也是对政府战胜既得利益能力的考验。

王不留注

柳下婴老师是我认识的英语大佬之一，擅长外文翻译，爱看《经济学人》。

根据不少考研朋友的建议，现在将其翻译作品，上传到百度网盘，在“柳下婴精翻系列”中，以PDF方式免费分享。欢迎。谢谢。